Some reflections on the situation in the Middle East
Published: Fri, 04/03/26
mind.
Already rapidly rising fuel prices are affecting us all directly, and other inflation will be fuelled soon enough. At some point we may well face actual shortages when certain commodities become unavailable at any price. Global supply chains are so convoluted and delicate these days that it is impossible to predict which goods will be most affected at this stage. Some of the first casualties of the war were over 160 school girls and their teachers killed by tomahawk missile strikes. It might have been a targeting error. On the other hand, apparently, the school was mainly attended by the daughters of IRGC officers, so the attack may have been completely deliberate.
The other initial casualties were Ali Khamenei the Supreme Leader, his family, and his top advisers when his home was hit by a massive Israeli airstrike. Israel is very fond of carrying out ‘decapitation’ attacks to destroy the leader’s of its enemies. Should the Khamenei have been safe in a bunker deep under a mountain? In retrospect maybe. However, as mentioned above the USA and Iran were supposed to be in the middle of serious negotiations so why expect an attack? The Iranian leadership also likes to set an example of courage and service which means taking the same risks as their people. A succession plan is always in place with replacements ready to step into the newly vacant roles. It is also worth considering what kind of person steps up when the risk of assassination is so high. The replacement may be less experienced, but they will be brave, patriotic, and determined to carry on the fight. There is a principle that
predators improve the breed by thinning out the weak.
Khamenei was 86 years old and apparently in poor health. For decades he had prevented Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, something well within Iranian capabilities. It was probably his choice to to end the 12 day war with Israel last June just when Iran was inflicting some real damage on its attacker. It is now not quite clear who is really in command in Iran, and that is probably just how the Iranians want it. Whoever it is will pursue this war with far more ruthless determination than Khamenei would have managed. However, his martyrdom has inspired millions.
It also seems that Iran was infiltrated with traitors, fifth columnists, and foreign saboteurs. The 12 day war involved attacks from within Iran itself. The civil unrest earlier this year began with a deliberate crashing of the Rial, the Iranian currency to create protests which were then stirred up into violence by Mossad agents coordinated through the Starlink communication system. The treachery penetrated right to the heart of the regime. I have seen credible reports that the successor to General Qasem Soleimani, a General Esmail Qaani was always present when the various decapitation strike happened, including the one at the home of the supreme leader on February the 28th, and always left just before the Israeli missiles and bombs struck. Since Qaani was appointed by Khamenei after Trump ordered the assassination of his superior in 2019 and seems to have been protected by him, he may have been immune from investigation. After
the decapitation strike Qanni has simply disappeared. Did the Israelis think that Qaani would take over a major leadership position if the Supreme Leader was killed, in which case the new regime would simply surrender to them? If so, it didn’t work out like that and the replacement leadership seemed determined to resist for as long as it takes.
Has the USA made a mistake by getting involved in yet another unnecessary war which can’t be won in any conventional sense? The USA nearly always loses wars at great expense in blood and treasure, taking 8 or 9 years in Vietnam and 20 years in Afghanistan. However, the Military Industrial Complex has just received an extra $200 billion on top of the nearly $1 billion in military spending which happens every year anyway and fortunes will be made re-stocking America’s arsenal with the munitions which have been expended and equipment that needs to be replaced. There is also evidence that the stock and energy markets are being manipulated by Trump who makes announcements which drive stock market movements enabling massive profits to be made by those who know what is coming. The price of oil has doubled and anyone who deals in oil will be benefiting enormously. It wasn’t really clear why the USA took control of Venezuelan oil earlier in
the year when it was barely profitable to refine it. It is certainly profitable now. Even abandoning the middle eastern military bases would save the US military billions of dollars, and the resources could be redirected towards China, of on fully dominating the Americas. Did a combination of Israeli pressure, debts to Zionist doners, and the blood lust of Trump’s Republican Christian-Zionist base ‘force’ him to attack Iran? Possibly, but either way the Donald and his cronies were not going to miss the chance to make a quick buck out of the situation.
As for Israel the benefits are less predictable. The intention was probably to replace the Iranian regime with one compliant with Israel as seems to have been achieved in Syria. The war is also distracting the world from noticing Israel’s progress in creating the greater Israel. While Iran is resisting by closing the Straights of Hormuz and disrupting the world economy Israel is putting yet more pressure on the Palestinians in Gaza and in the West bank and has launched a ground invasion of Lebanon with the intention of clearing the native population up to the Litani river. How is it working out? The Israelis have been making huge efforts to censor any information regarding damage and casualties in the conflict. There are reports that the around 30% of IDF reservists have either deserted or refused to report for duty. Hezbollah is putting up a fierce resistance in Lebanon and numerous Israeli tanks have been destroyed. Hamas is
by no means finished in Gaza, and the Israeli media has reported that around 80% of Iranian missiles get though the famous ‘Iron Dome’ air defence system, and that is before the stock of interceptor missiles runs out, which will happen soon.
So, what happens next? I have no idea. There will be massive economic disruption and we will be paying a lot more for energy for quite a while. Apart from that there will be changes in the Middle East.
Why was it possible for a US backed Zionist state to dominate the region for so long? The Arabs have a philosophy that can be summed up as: ‘My enemy’s enemy is my friend.’ Israel has always been everyone’s enemy, and therefore, everyone’s friend when they needed help attacking their enemy. The Shia v. Sunni divide has been ruthlessly exploited, especially between Shia Iran and the Sunni dominated Gulf States. Hamas was supported by the Israelis in Gaza as an opponent to Fatah in the West bank to undermine the possibility of a Palestinian state. Similar divisions have been used to destabilise Syria, Lebanon, and many other places. Perhaps at last the people of the Middle East will recognise who their real enemy is and learn to work together. It is about time.
regards
Graham
PS For some of the best coverage of events such as the war on Iran I would recommend following the Duran https://theduran.com/
PPS I will continue with my posts on the theme of what I have learned from Stav next week, have a good Easter.
Graham Butcher
21 Beaver Road
Beverley East Yorkshire HU17 0QN
UNITED KINGDOM
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